Simply stated, “Peak Oil” refers to the global peak of oil production. Oil is a finite, non-renewable resource, and one day, if not already, world production will hit its maximum rate and then start to terminally decline. The implications for this are profound. Cheap oil is the backbone of modern industrial society. Without ever-expanding supplies of cheap oil today’s global industrial growth economy cannot exist.

Hubbert Curve

Peak oil theory was first popularized by oil geologist Dr. M. King Hubbert in the 1950s. He theorized that for a given geographic region production increases exponentially until it reaches its maximum rate.  Once the maximum rate has been reached, it then starts to decline exponentially, following what looks like a bell-shaped curve.

A peak is only observable in retrospect, but in 1956 Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970.  It turned out that he was correct. His model has been used to accurately predict peaks in other countries too. With all of these peaks occurring it should be obvious that someday world oil production will peak too. Many models predict that the time is about now. At least, we’re in the 10-year-or-so window of time where the global peak will occur. The problem is that we won’t know for sure until after the peak occurs.

Modern industrial society is designed to continually grow in terms of population and economy (i.e. consumption). To date, we have been using cheap fossil fuels to do this. Demand for fossil fuels grows every year, but one day supply will peak and then decline. It should be easy to see why this is a problem.

Peak Everything

All fossil fuels are finite resources (although we act as though they’re not) and will eventually peak. Based on available reserves and consumption, oil will peak first, then natural gas and then coal. As fossil fuels supplies decline our ability to cheaply extract resources, manufacture and transport goods will peak too. And fossil fuels do more than just provide energy. Oil is used as feedstock for plastics, pesticides, lubricants and other chemicals. Natural gas is used to make synthetic fertilizers. We can naturally expect expect supplies of these goods to peak as well.

What About Alternative, Renewable Fuels?

Alternative, renewable sources of fuel are a great idea  No fuel, however, contains as much energy and is as easy to transport as oil and oil-derived fuels are. A gallon of, say, corn ethanol contains roughly 75% as much energy as gasoline and there is simply not enough farm land in the United States to grow enough fuel and food at the same time.

As the fossil fuels era fades away our ability to manufacture and transport the goods and machinery necessary to manufacture solar panels and wind turbines will diminish.  Nuclear is a not good bet either because uranium is also a non-renewable resource with its own peak nearing, not to mention that it cannot be efficiently mined without, you guessed it, cheap oil.

Why Haven’t We Been Told About This?

We have.  At least since the 50s when Dr. Hubbert starting speaking about this, but he was largely ignored.  Even Boulder’s own Dr. Albert Bartlett has been speaking about this since the 60s.  According to his website he has given his Arithmetic, Population and Energy lecture over 1,600 times.

What To Do?

Transition Towns movement is a community-based response to this crisis as well as Global Climate Change.  Our intention is to build up our community resilience and self-reliance by fostering a greater sense of  community in Boulder and by working with people, government, businesses and community groups to reduce our fossil fuel dependence by relocalizing our economy.